Scottish Independence – but independent from whom?



If he was Scottish Anthony Sargeant would vote for Independence. He would not however then vote to throw that Independence away by joining the EU and adopting the Euro. It seems that this is what the SNP is in effect proposing to do.

It seems to Tony that to become a ‘bit player‘, a ‘minor province‘ slightly larger than Lithuania (and probably with as much genuine influence) in the great European Superstate dominated and controlled by Germany via Brussels and the European Central Bank would make a nonsense of Independence. It would make Scotland a Vassal state in a new German Empire.

Before anybody protests that Scotland would not have to adopt the Euro it is as well to point out that NEW members are being required to adopt the Euro following a number of policy decisions post 1992 Maastricht, and Copenhagen. Following Independence from the rest of the UK and even in the interim, while negotiating EU membership, Scotland could surely not continue to use the £ sterling. That would be impossibly complicated. So what are they to do?

Furthermore it would not just be a case of the proportion of EU control over day to day life in Scotland remaining the same as it is now because the stated aim is for greater and greater integration of political, economic and social structures. So Scotland will find itself losing its independence year by year as Germany through the Brussels politburo extends it control.

In addition if the EU is to survive it has to take greater direct control of the financial affairs of member states through the Eurozone (and in the transition period Exchange Rate Mechanism II as with Denmark). To do this the European Central Bank will need to govern and ‘harmonise’ taxation and other financial instruments across the EU. ‘Harmonise’ sounds such a pleasant and harmless European buzz-word until one unpicks its true meaning which is to take away government from national, in this case Scottish, level and replace it with centralised decisions taken by the European Commission and European Central Bank.

In the context of EU finances it would be interesting to know to what extent Scotland would become a net contributor to the EU budget supporting Greece and a number of other failing economies with massive youth unemployment. If the oil and gas revenues turn out to be much larger than previously thought Scotland will surely have to make a very large net contribution thereby decreasing the revenue available to the Scottish Government to use for the direct benefit of Scottish infrastructure and services. Although in reality of course Holyrood’s power to allocate its own resources will diminish year on year as control seeps away to Brussels. Eventually leaving Holyrood as a sort of Parish Council along with other small provincial governments (of other previously and similarly proud nation states) within the European Superstate.

Furthermore and in relation to financial matters  Scotland will not, as a member of the EU, be able to control its very valuable asset, the fisheries. Spanish Super-Trawlers will continue to cause devastation to this valuable resource, landing their above quota catches in Spanish ports with impunity, and with no benefit to the Scottish people.

Finally, and one knows the Basil Fawlty instruction, “Whatever you do don’t mention the war”. Nonetheless, Scottish people died in huge numbers in two world wars fighting against an aggressive Germany. The last war against The Third Reich was in the lifetime of Tony Sargeant and he does wonder what those who fought and died would think of a Scotland that voluntarily voted to abandon any new won independence and become part of a new German Empire in the guise of the EU, in effect a Fourth Reich?


Scottish ‘Independence’



As a sympathetic Englishman I understood the emotional and sentimental appeal of Scottish independence in the referendum of 2014. Indeed if I had been a Scot I might have voted in favour of independence given the economic and political circumstances at that time. But times have changed.

Notwithstanding that original sympathy I am perplexed by the action of the SNP in seeking a new referendum on leaving the Union. If they won a majority for ‘independence’ from the historic Union where would that leave Scotland? Ultimately, with Scotland having a population a little larger than Lithuania, perhaps as a minor province of a federal European Superstate dominated and controlled by Germany. This would hardly amount to ‘independence’ and seems a far worse option in terms of having control over the economic, political and social fabric of Scottish society compared with remaining part of the United Kingdom. Furthermore the time to negotiate and achieve that subordinate role in a European Empire would be measured in many years not months as is obvious from previous EU trading and membership negotiations  (not to mention the vehement opposition of Spain to any deal). During that time Scotland would be adrift on its own without any trading agreements, without access to the single market, and without the economic support which EU membership might possibly confer.

As oil prices collapse once again and thus with reduced income and necessarily a new interim Scottish currency until the possible adoption of the Euro as a precondition for EU membership, what would that mean for Scottish Society, for schools, social care, health services and all the rest? The resultant massive deterioration in social infrastructure would surely not be compensated for by eventually becoming a minor ‘subject’ nation within the European Empire, riven as it is with its own internal schisms and problems especially within the Eurozone.

It is clear that there is a sense of ‘now or never’ for the nationalists but the consequences of leaving the United Kingdom seem dire and the exact opposite of what the nationalists are calling for, that is “independence”, because the end result would be subjugation and loss of independence and national identity within a European Superstate.


The Problem faced by the Eurozone


Anthony Sargeant thinks that the following analysis is interesting. Also one might reflect that Mervyn King as a past Governor of The Bank of England might have some insight into the problem. It may be that the only solution for the Eurozone is either total financial integration within a Federal Europe which is indeed the aspiration of those who support the EU political project : Or dissolution of the Eurozone and the EU political project and reversion to a simple free trading bloc of sovereign countries. The problem is that total financial integration implies central European control of salaries, pensions, taxation, public services. It would be a federation of ‘unequals’ where the future life chances of those living in the ‘less equal’ regions will be determined by the dominant region (presently called Germany). How long that could be sustained and become a true democracy is highly questionable since the inevitable nature of the new European Empire would require an integration of not just every aspect of daily life with inevitably enormous regional inequalities but also an homogenisation of culture and mindset. In essence the whole project would succeed or fail on whether, for example, Sicilians or Greeks would want to, or could be persuaded, cajoled or forced, into adopting a German approach to life and government necessarily abandoning their own culture and identity in the process. It seems an unlikely proposition.

Mervyn King warned that the project is doomed, is it time for the Eurozone to be broken up?

Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes.

The Eurozone was always primarily a political project, a major stepping stone to the “ever closer union of the peoples of Europe,” but one with the profoundest economic consequences. Members have no control over their interest rates, their exchange rate or, indeed, fiscal policy. And, as we have seen in recent years, many Eurozone members have paid a bitter price for their loss macroeconomic sovereignty. Under the austerity cosh and with no ability to devalue their currencies, growth has disappointed and unemployment rates remain alarmingly high in Greece, Spain (albeit partly-recovering), Italy and Portugal. Looking ahead, there is no reason to believe the policy situation will fundamentally change. Fiscal discipline is entrenched and unremitting and, contrary to speculation, there are no signs that Germany will ever agree to a fiscal transfer union in order to support the weaker countries. The Eurozone simply lacks the demos and “solidarity” to enable the currency bloc to work for all. It’s time to break it up.

[Read the full article at Source: ]

Anthony Sargeant thinks every floating voter should read this letter to the Daily Telegraph before voting in the EU referendum


Letters: Britain’s competitiveness is undermined by a failing EU

A view of the City of London financial district 
Rising above it: a view of the City of London financial district  CREDIT: JASON ALDEN /BLOOMBERG

SIR – Britain is the fifth biggest economy in the world and, on current projections, will overtake Germany to become Europe’s powerhouse. Britain is America’s largest inward investor, and our openness and dynamism mean we attract more inward investment than any other European country.

Three of the world’s top 10 universities are British, we speak the international language of business, our legal system is trusted round the world and we have an unrivalled reputation for innovation and creativity.

These are just some of the reasons we believe that Britain is world-class. However, we also believe that Britain’s competitiveness is being undermined by our membership of a failing EU.

Year-on-year the EU buys less from Britain because its economies are stagnant and millions of people are unemployed. According to Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England, the euro “might explode”. Brussels’ red tape stifles every one of Britain’s 5.4 million businesses, even though only a small minority actually trade with the EU.

It is business – not government – which generates wealth for the Treasury and jobs for our communities. Outside the EU, British business will be free to grow faster, expand into new markets and create more jobs. It’s time to vote leave and take back control.

Arun Ahluwalia, Director, Opera Opera Opticians

Kay Alexander, Founder, Kay Alexander

Andrew Allum, Partner, LEK Consulting

John Amor, Owner, The Wight Hotel

Arabella Arkwright, Co-Founder, Core Health & Wellness

Johnnie Arkwright, Chief Executive, Hatton Technology Park

Iftikhar Awan, Director, Awan Consulting

Farzana Baduel, Founder, Curzon PR

Jeremy Bagge, Director, Stradsett Estate Farms

Iain Baillie, Founder & Co-Chief Executive, Asset Match

Davinder Bains, Director, A1 Labour Supply

David Baldwin, Managing Director, Bymed

Neil Ballantyne, Managing Director, Ballantynes of Walkerburn

Diane Banks, Chief Executive, Diane Bank Associates

Patrick Barbour, Former Chairman, Barbour Index & Microgen

Dave Barnby, Proprietor, Books2buyBooks2write

Martin Barraclough, Chairman, Giles W Pritchard-Gordon (Shipowning)

Peter Barrow, Commercial Director, Barco Sales

Oliver Barton, Owner, Oliver’s Kitchen

Andrew Baxter, Managing Director, Europa Worldwide Logistics

Neville Baxter, Director, RH Development Property

Nigel Baxter, Managing Director, RH Commercial Vehicles

Kevin Bell, Director, CDM 2014

Martin Bellamy, Chairman and Chief Executive, Salamanca Group

Dave Bentley, Ecological Consultant, Dave Bentley Ecology Services

Grahame Berkeley, Chairman, Berkeley Burke Group

Stephen Bernhard, Founder, Bernhard Grinders & Co

Saqib Bhatti, Director, Younis Bhatti & Co

Robin Birley, Proprietor, 5 Hertford Street

Peter Bishop, Managing Director & Founder, Bishop GmbH

Edward Bonnar, Director, Beaufort & Blake

Gareth Bott, Founder, R.E.P Air Services

Peter Botting, Founder, Peter Botting

Simon Boyd, Director, John Reid & Sons

Ivor Braka, Director, Ivor Braka

Rob Bransgrove, Chairman, The Ageas Bowl

Simon Brewer, Chief Executive, Vantage Investment Advisory

Harriet Bridgeman, Founder, Bridgeman Art Library

Stephen Britt, Managing Director, Anchor Storage Solutions

James Bromley, Director, Quality of Sales

Andrew Brown, Director, Haircut House

Ian Brown, Managing Director, Industrial Maintenance Engineers (IME Contracts)

David Buik, Market Commentator, Panmure Gordon & Co

Dominic Burke, Group Chief Executive, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group

Jeremy Burrowes, Director, Grove Mill Developments

Thomas Burton, Director, Agri Farm Services

Tony Byrne, Managing Director, Wealth & Tax Management

Michael Campbell, Chairman, The Ellis Campbell Group

Lee Canning, Director, Leaflet Distribution and Promotional Services

Mark Cannon Brookes, Director, Smith & Williamson Investment Management

Hugh Cavendish, Chairman, Holker Estate Group

Julian Cazalet, Chairman, Herald Investment Trust

Peter Chadha, Chief Executive, DrPete Technology Experts

Ian Chamberlain, Director & Owner, Berkeley Entertainments

Carl Chambers, Non-Executive Director, CNG

Chris Chatfield, Managing Director, Compass Travel

Peter Chesterfield, Former Executive Chairman, Wessex Asset Management

Moorad Choudhry, Former Chief Executive, Habib Bank

Aftab Chughtai, Director, AFTABS

Adam Cleary, Chief Executive, Cavenham Capital

Reg Clifton, Proprieter, QED Electrical Services

Andrew Clowes, Director, AHC & Partners

Paul Coffin, Managing Director , Capital Financial Markets

Colin Coldwell, UK Managing Director, InfoQuest

Tim Congdon, Founder, Lombard Street Research

Steve Conley, Managing Director, Protol Comar

John Cook, Managing Director, Croudace Properties Group

Anthony Coombs, Chairman, S&U

David Cooper, Director, Commercial Litigation Funding

Andrew Cope, Chairman, Zenith

Daniel Corrigan, CME European Trade Repository, Chief Executive

Alan Cosby, Chairman, G B Kent & Sons

James Crocker, Managing Partner, Howell & Co Solicitors

Peter Cruddas, Chief Executive, CMC Markets

Philip Cullimore, Chairman, Eastman Kodak SARL

Richard Cuming, Partner, Bygones Torquay

Jonathan Dancy, Managing Partner, JCR Associates

Kevin Davies, Director, KDM Events

Kenneth Davy, Chairman, SimplyBiz

Damon de Laszlo, Chairman, Harwin

Patrick de Pelet, Partner, Bowden Farms and Services

David Dean, Commercial Manager, INRG Solar

Alexander Deane, Managing Director, FTI Consulting

Bill Dixon, Director, Cumbria X Press

Judith Donovan, Chairman, DIY Direct Marketing

Steve Dowdle, Former Vice President, Sony Europe

William Drake, Co-Founder, Lord North Street

Simon Dunn, Managing Director, Stayway

John Elliott, Chairman, Ebac

Graham Ellis, Founder, Ellis Transport Services

Michael Faber, Chairman, Lyall Management

Nicholas Fairfax, Chairman of the Advisory Board, Hawki Worldwide

R H Fewster, Chairman, Dalsara

John Fifield, Chairman, Fifield Glyn

Nick Finegold, Chief Executive, Curation Corporation

Peter Finnie, Former Chief Engineer, Cranswick Country Foods

Scott Fletcher, ANS Group, Chairman & Founder

Howard Flight, Chairman, Flight & Partners

Lance Forman, Owner, H. Forman & Son

Rocco Forte, Executive Chairman, The Rocco Forte Collection

Joe Foster, Co-Founder, Reebok

Mark Fox, Managing Director, MEK

David Franks, Chairman, Redcomb Pubs

David S Franks, Chief Executive, Franks Advances

Michael Freeman, Co-founder, Argent Property Group

Harry Fuchs, Chief Executive, Haryl (1991)

Anthony Fuller, President, Fuller, Smith & Turner

Roger Gabb, Director, Bibendum Wine

Alexei Garan, Founder & Principal, Receptis Capital

Rupert Gather, Chairman, Invest UK

Michael Geoghegan, Former Chief Executive, HSBC Group

Peter Gilbert, Proprietor, Dunstanburgh Castle Golf Course

Peter Goldstein, Co-Founder, Superdrug Stores

Anthony Good, Chairman, Cox & Kings Travel

Bill Good, Chief Executive, Diverco

Phil Good, Chief Executive, Hopewiser

Campbell Gordon, Managing Partner, Optimus Capital LLP

Chris Gower, Founder, Lawbrook Partners LLP

Alexander Graham, Former Deputy Chairman, The Frizzell Group

Roddy Graham, Director, THB Group

Richard Green, Partner , Parkinson Wright Solicitors

Tim Guinness, Chief Investment Officer, Guinness Atkinson

Justin Hall, Chief Executive, Protocol Global

Alan Halsall, Former Chairman, Silver Cross

Frederick Hamilton, Director, Dscribe

Michael Hancocks, Former Director, New Metals & Chemicals

Giles Hankinson, Business Development Director, Paperless Receipts

Peter K Hargreaves, Co-Founder, Hargreaves Lansdown

Elaine Harries, Managing Director, Action Express

Kevin Harrington, Chief Executive, one2one Digital

Ian Harris, Proprietor, N Bloom & Son

David Hartley, Director, Bymed Surgical

John Hatt, Founder,

Jeremy Hawke, Director, BMR Group

Adrian Hayes, Business Coach

Oliver Hemsley, Chief Executive Officer, Numis Securities

Ian Herbert, Chief Executive Officer, Vistair Systems

Jonathan Heywood, Managing Director, IFP-UK

John Hickman, Chairman and Founder, Kingston Estates

Robert Hiscox, Honorary President, Hiscox Insurance

Will Hobhouse, Chairman, Heal’s

Daniel Hodson, Chairman, BPL (Holdings)

Mark Hodson, Managing Director, Spirthill Business Development

John Hoerner, Former Chief Executive Officer, Tesco Clothing (UK and Central Europe)

Christine Hogg, Director, CAMS Fire & Security

Roger Holehouse, Chairman, Fernwood Group

Margaret Hook, Director, Darlena

Jeremy Hosking, Founder, Hosking & Co

Kevin Hughes, Director, Trull House Stud

Varimder Hundal, Director, Universal Brothers

David Hunter, Director, Smith & Williamson

Adrian Huston, Director, Huston & Co Tax Consultants & Accountants

Graham Hutton, Founder, Hutton Collins Partners LLP

William Hynett, Chief Executive, Britten-Norman

Malcolm Innes, Founder, Malcolm Innes Pictures

Clive Jacobs, Chairman, Jacobs Media Group

Ajay Jagota, Chief Executive, KIS Group

Jack Jenkins, Partner, Hitchenor Wakeford

Paul Jenkins, Director, NorthIT

Mike Jepson, Managing Director, MTP Innovations

Adrian Johnson, Former Chief Executive, LGV Capital

Arthur Jones, Founder, ANJ Executive

William Jones, Chairman, Global Village

Dr Bernard Juby, Medical Practitioner

Nicholas Jupe, Director, NJ Consulting

Saleem Kader, Chief Executive, Bombay Stores Group

Stanley Kalms, Founder, Business for Sterling

Chris D Kelly, Chairman, Keltruck

Geoffrey Kelly, Managing Director, Euro Strategies

Alistair Kelman, Chief Executive, Cachebox TV

John Kersey, Managing Director, Kersey Hairdressing

George Kieffer, Director, Piazza Rights

Adrian King, Founder, K T & Partners

Brian Kingham, Chairman, Reliance Security Group

David Kirk, Director, David Kirk & Co

Nicholas Kirk, Director, Aslan Investments

Peter Kleeman, Founding Chairman, Allside Asset Management Company

Harry Langton, Director, Langton Watzdorf Inernational

Robert Law, Managing Director, AGD Equipment

James Lee, Partner, J&S Farms

Michael Liebreich, Founder, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Craig Lindsay, Director, Core Specialist Services

Jonathan Little, Managing Partner, Northill Capital LLP

Royston Lloyd-Baker, Partner, Lloyd-Baker & Associates LLP

John Longworth, Former Director General, British Chamber of Commerce

Mark Loveday, Former Senior Partner, Cazenove & Co

Rupert Lowe, Former Chairman, Southampton Leisure Holdings

Gary Lydiate, Chief Executive Officer, Kilfrost Group

William MacDougall, Co-Managing Director, MacDougall Arts

Colin Mackenzie, Founder, CompareGroup

Alastair MacMillan, Founding Director, White House Products

Colin Maitland, Chairman, Netcentrix

Tim Martin, Chairman, JD Wetherspoon

Graham Mason, Owner, M54 Self Storage

John May, Founder, Hillhouse Nexus

Adrian McAlpine, Partner, Sir Robert McAlpine

Peter McLane, Founder and Managing Director, Indigo Software

James Mellor, Chief Executive, Rainbow Trout Films

Keith Miles, Former Financial Director, Institute of Economic Affairs

Edgar Miller, Managing Director, Palladian

Marcus Miller, Managing Director, Millers Bespoke Bakery

Phillip Miller, Chairman and Chief Executive, Adventure Island

Philip Milton, Investment Fund Manager and Senior IFA, Philip Milton & Co

Tom Moloney, Founder, Transair Flight Equipment

Gary Mond, Managing Director, Redcliffe Training Associates

David Mond, Chief Executive, ClearDebt Group

Julian Morgan, Joint Managing Director and Owner, KPM-Marine

Philip Morrell, Owner, Magna Carta Steamship Co

Luke Morris, Partner, Larking Gowen

Jon Moulton, Chairman, Better Capital LLP

Jon Moynihan, Chairman, Ipex Capital

Richard Mulligan, Managing Director, Impact Electrical Distributors

Paul Munday, Managing Director, Fiscal House

Andy Nichols, Owner, Blacksmith & More

Christopher Nieper, Managing Director, David Nieper

Richard Norton, Former Director, HSBC Project and Export Finance

Roderick Oliver, Proprietor, Field ‘n Family Petcare Services

Mark Owen, Proprietor, Fulwood Computers

Ian Page, Chairman, CTL Components

Kevin Pakenham, Co-Founder, Pakenham Partners

Tim Parker, Chief Executive, Messels

Stewart Paterson, Fund Manager, Tiburon Partners LLP

Richard Patient, Managing Director, Thorncliffe

Simon, Pearson-Miles, Chairman, Sterling Financial Print

Jeffrey, Peel, Founder, Quadriga Consulting

Adrian Pepper, Chief Executive Officer, Pepper Media Group

Andrew Perloff, Director, Panther Securities

Michael Petley, Chief Investment Officer, The ECU Group

Richard Post, Proprietor, Architectural Ideas

David Powell, Chairman, Powell Engineering UK

Bruno Prior, Managing Director, Forever Fuels

Emma Pullen, Chief Executive, British Hovercraft

Mark Pursey, Managing Partner, BTP Advisers

David Pusinelli, Non-Executive Director, Charles Stanley Group

Rollo Reid, Director, John Reid & Sons

David Reid Scott, Former Chairman, Stonehage Fleming

Chris Riley, Executive Chairman, Verisio

Jamie Robb, Managing Director, Marlborough Tiles

Alan Roberts, Managing Director, Alan Roberts & Co Solicitors

Robin Ronaldshay, Director, Zetland Estates

Clive Rook, Founder & ex-Managing Director, Rook Matthews Sayer Property

Frank Rotherham, Managing Director, Ventcroft

Simon Rowland, Chief Executive, Veritas International

Richard Royden, Director, Royden & Co

Christopher Russell, Managing Director, Watercare International

John Sanders, Former Non-Executive Director, CIT Bank

Andrew Saunders, Financial Director, Scotchcoulthard

Savvas Savouri, Chief Economist & Partner, Toscafund Asset Management LLP

Charles Sebag Montefiore, Senior Independent Director, Scholium Group

Graham Sedgley, Principal, Peplow Recruitment Services

Patrick Sheehy, Founder Chairman , BAT

David Shipley, Managing Partner, Spitfire Capital Advisors

Peter Shirley, Managing Director, Midland Food Group

Denys Shortt, Chairman & Chief Executive,

Christian Siegl, Executive Director, Sovereign Star Trade Finance

David Sismey, Managing Director, Goldmans Sachs

Andrew Smith, Director, Capital Management Resources LLP

Tracy Smith, Founder, Plummers Place Guesthouse

Percy Snow, Director, Snows Commercials

Bernard Sparkes, Managing Director, Tubby Brands

David Speakman, Founder, Travel Counsellors

Peter Stabler, Director, The Oswald Partnership

Charles Stone, Director, Calcot Hotels

Richard Stoughton, Chairman, Crossflight

Phil Strong, Managing Director, Chameleon Bar & Dining

Andrew Sutcliffe, Managing Director, Nu Level

Rhoddy Swire, Founder, Pantheon Ventures

Mark Thackray, Director, Textronix

Brian Thomas, Director, Thomas Tooling

Paul Thomas, Director, Thomas Tooling

Peter Thompson, Former Chairman, NFC

Clive Thorne, Partner, Wedlake Bell LLP

John Thorpe, Founder & Technical Director, Millennia Computer Services

Susan Todd, Director, Solent Motor Homes

John Toppin, Partner, Nomizon Associates

Jeremy Tozer, Managing Director, Tozer Consulting

Tim Trotter, Chairman, Glenfern

Edmund Truell, Chairman, Disruptive Capital

Denzil Vallance, Managing Director, Great Heck Brewing Co

Victor van Amerongen, Chairman & Creative Director, Space City Production

Alexander van Terheyden, Chief Executive, Schneider Camara LLP

Simon Vicary, Managing Director, Vicary Plant Spares UK

Amanda Vigar, Managing Partner, V&A Vigar Group

Chris Vincent, Managing Director, Orchardleigh

Nigel Vinson, Former Director, British Airports Authority

Peter Walton, Director, C Walton

Stuart Waring, Chairman, Heaton Holdings

Tim Watts, Chairman, Pertemps Investments

Penelope Wayne, Director, Penway Homes

David Webster, Former Chairman, IHG

Michael Webster, Co-Founder, Gorkana

Simon Wells, Director, Delta T Group

Adam Wethered, Co-Founder, Lord North Street

Mark Wheatley, Common Councilman, City of London

Stuart Wheeler, Founder, IG Group

Mark Whelan, Owner, Confused2Move

Andrew White, Former Partner, Mayer Brown

Bert Wiegman, Managing Partner, Langholm Capital

Jack Wigglesworth, Founder and former Chairman, LIFFE

Stephen, Wilkinson, Managing Director, CAS Recruitment

Brian Williamson, Senior Advisor, Fleming Family & Partners Wealth Planning

John Winter, Chief Executive, Ruxley Ventures

Brian Winterflood, Founder, Winterflood Securities

John Wright, Managing Director, Modern Design Group

Brian Yeardley, Founder, Brian Yeardley Continental

Phil Yorke, Managing Director, Crosshatch Honing Services

BREXIT : Read this piece carefully – it is an historical analysis


Anthony J Sargeant wants to draw attention to the link at the bottom of this post which is an historical analysis of European Empire building of which the EU is just the latest example.

The United States of America only remained ‘United’ after a bloody civil war lasting 4 years (1861-65). That war was at root a war about the agricultural economies of the Southern states, dependent as they were on cheap labour, in comparison with the industrialized Northern states. Even after that terrible Civil War the divisions lingered on and still exist today.

Continental Europe has historically been bedevilled by successive attempts to create a European Superstate ever since the Roman Empire collapsed when national factions eventually asserted themselves.

Major examples as Boris Johnson points out are the Empires that Napoleon and Hitler sought to establish. More recently one might include the Soviet Union and its satellite eastern European Empire. But in the end even the might of the Soviet Union could not hold that Empire together as Hungarians, Czechoslavaks, Poles, East Germans and others sought to assert their national identities free from the undemocratic and repressive economic control imposed by Moscow.

Similarly the modern EU is an undemocratic institution led by Germany which, whether intended or not, has achieved a domination of other European nations which neither Bismarck, the Kaiser or Hitler achieved. German industry needs cheap southern labour and needs the moderating effect on the value of the Euro of those desperate economies of Greece, Portugal, Italy, and others. Without that moderating effect German high quality, but in Deutsche Marks very expensive, goods would be difficult to market to the rest of the Global economies.

Far from UK Brexit from the undemocratic and dysfunctional EU leading to WWIII – as David Cameron suggested the other day – (what nonsense scaremongering): Brexit is more likely to cause a reorientation of European trade co-operation and collaboration which could circumvent an eventual European Civil War driven by economic inequalities between the Northern and Southern States.




Anthony J Sargeant comments:

The scare tactics of the remain campaign have reached new farcical and frankly insulting heights with David Cameron’s latest pronouncement suggesting that if we left the EU then World War III  would break out in Europe. In his speech he conjured up images of row upon row of white War Graves Commission headstones in France and elsewhere which would be added to as ‘brave British boys’ had to go to war to ‘save Europe’.  Along with images of the Panzer divisions which would once again roll across the frontiers occupying Greece and other recalcitrant countries who refused to toe the EU-Eurozone line on tax and austerity.

Actually of course Germany has already achieved what the the Kaiser and Hitler failed to do, which is to dominate and control most of the European continent in support of their economy which would struggle without foreign labour and without the moderating effect on the Euro of the desperate failed economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy etc.. If the Germans had to return to the Deutsche Mark they would find it difficult to sell their high quality but expensive Deutsche Mark priced exports in the world markets.

That aside one might also return to another of the oft cited images about the EU which is to point to the example of “The United” States of America. Imagining that somehow a disparate groups of countries with different languages and cultures will coalesce into the ‘United States of Europe’ – which is the ultimate destination aimed at by the EU political project.

In that imagined scenario there are two serious flaws. One is that far from being a liberal and embracing image it suggests an inward looking ‘Fortress Europe’: Whereas many liberal minded people would rather have a ‘world view’ that reached out to other cultures and countries across the globe in a spirit of mutual respect and collaboration. The second, and perhaps more frightening, flaw is that the United States only remained ‘United’ after a bloody Civil War (the root causes of which were economic – albeit related to slavery). In the American Civil War of 1861-65 there were over a million casualties. Far from the EU being a source of harmony and peace in Europe it is more probable that the deep economic divisions between the (necessary) perpetuation of rich and poor ‘states’ (because they would no longer be sovereign ‘countries’) in Europe would eventually erupt into some secessionist ‘civil war’ just as it did in the USA in 1861.